We’ve seen posts from a few people questioning the integrity of the election results. Some are vague — the fact that Republican operatives were able to copy data from voting machines and then spend a few years possibly looking at how to exploit them is certainly a valid concern, but there’s not data available to prove or dispute this. One, however, has analysis of votes cast. https://substack.com/inbox/post/151721941 from Stephen Spoonamore.
So I started pulling numbers — drop-off votes, I presume, are where the presidential candidate far outperformed down-ballot same-party candidates. That seems … plausible. A high number of “bullet ballots”, however, could be worrisome. And that, it seems, could be constructed from public data. How many people voted for president? How many voted for a Senator? Now, this doesn’t work if the state didn’t have a Senate election. (NC had a governor race, so I’m including that as well). I’m sure some people show up to vote for the top and are done. Spoonamore even says this happens – they’ve got stats for previous elections.
Do the number of people who voted for someone as the president v/s the number of people who voted for someone for senate fall outside a reasonable range?
| State | Senate – Repub | Senate – Dem | Senate – Total | Pres – Repub | Pres – Dem | Pres – Total | %R | %D | %Tot | Pres Party | Notes |
| NJ | 1,767,773 | 2,151,322 | 4,015,343 | 1,966,571 | 2,218,074 | 4,268,422 | 10.109% | 3.009% | 5.93% | D | 86% reporting senate, 91% reporting pres |
| RI | 195,919 | 293,288 | 489,207 | 214,406 | 285,156 | 510,749 | 8.622% | -2.852% | 4.22% | D | |
| IN | 1,659,416 | 1,097,061 | 2,829,710 | 1,720,347 | 1,163,587 | 2,933,684 | 3.542% | 5.717% | 3.54% | R | |
| CA | 6,303,942 | 9,026,904 | 15,330,846 | 6,072,371 | 9,266,468 | 15,842,804 | -3.814% | 2.585% | 3.23% | D | |
| CT | 679,799 | 1,002,049 | 1,711,215 | 739,638 | 994,549 | 1,763,712 | 8.090% | -0.754% | 2.98% | D | |
| OH | 2,812,778 | 2,599,761 | 5,602,804 | 3,180,116 | 2,533,699 | 5,765,017 | 11.551% | -2.607% | 2.81% | R | |
| NY | 3,155,521 | 4,491,802 | 7,686,522 | 3,484,126 | 4,413,632 | 7,897,758 | 9.431% | -1.771% | 2.67% | D | |
| ME | 277,873 | 84,819 | 799,861 | 372,323 | 431,915 | 821,382 | 25.368% | 80.362% | 2.62% | D | Independent won Senate race |
| WA | 1,549,187 | 2,252,578 | 3,801,765 | 1,530,924 | 2,245,849 | 3,898,837 | -1.193% | -0.300% | 2.49% | D | |
| NM | 405,995 | 497,346 | 903,341 | 423,405 | 478,813 | 923,458 | 4.112% | -3.871% | 2.18% | D | |
| DE | 197,742 | 283,273 | 500,750 | 214,351 | 289,758 | 511,697 | 7.749% | 2.238% | 2.14% | D | |
| WY | 198,371 | 63,706 | 262,077 | 192,633 | 70,527 | 267,353 | -2.979% | 9.671% | 1.97% | R | |
| TN | 1,916,591 | 1,027,428 | 3,005,522 | 1,964,499 | 1,055,069 | 3,062,922 | 2.439% | 2.620% | 1.87% | R | |
| MN | 1,291,725 | 1,792,474 | 3,186,151 | 1,519,032 | 1,656,979 | 3,240,913 | 14.964% | -8.177% | 1.69% | D | |
| UT | 914,667 | 464,504 | 1,463,139 | 883,768 | 562,549 | 1,487,882 | -3.496% | 17.429% | 1.66% | R | |
| NC | 2,241,308 | 3,069,506 | 5,591,558 | 2,898,428 | 2,715,380 | 5,679,658 | 22.672% | -13.041% | 1.55% | R | Governor – Mark Robinson race |
| MI | 2,693,680 | 2,712,686 | 5,577,183 | 2,816,636 | 2,736,533 | 5,662,504 | 4.365% | 0.871% | 1.51% | R | |
| NH* | 434,857 | 360,144 | 811,120 | 395,346 | 417,544 | 822,528 | -9.994% | 13.747% | 1.39% | D | Governor |
| NV | 677,046 | 701,105 | 1,464,728 | 751,205 | 705,197 | 1,484,840 | 9.872% | 0.580% | 1.35% | R | |
| NE | 498,228 | 435,743 | 933,971 | 563,866 | 369,819 | 946,041 | 11.641% | -17.826% | 1.28% | R | |
| FL | 5,977,706 | 4,603,077 | 10,757,415 | 6,110,125 | 4,683,038 | 10,893,547 | 2.167% | 1.707% | 1.25% | R | |
| AZ | 1,595,761 | 1,676,335 | 3,347,964 | 1,770,242 | 1,582,860 | 3,389,319 | 9.856% | -5.905% | 1.22% | R | |
| MO | 1,646,686 | 1,236,505 | 2,959,514 | 1,750,625 | 1,199,751 | 2,991,373 | 5.937% | -3.063% | 1.07% | R | |
| MS | 761,833 | 450,718 | 1,212,551 | 746,305 | 465,357 | 1,225,239 | -2.081% | 3.146% | 1.04% | R | |
| VA | 2,019,822 | 2,416,698 | 4,436,520 | 2,075,009 | 2,335,076 | 4,482,177 | 2.660% | -3.495% | 1.02% | D | |
| PA | 3,399,571 | 3,384,431 | 6,963,694 | 3,543,609 | 3,423,287 | 7,034,768 | 4.065% | 1.135% | 1.01% | R | |
| MA | 1,365,445 | 2,041,693 | 3,419,392 | 1,251,308 | 2,126,545 | 3,453,459 | -9.121% | 3.990% | 0.99% | D | |
| VT | 116,512 | 229,542 | 363,234 | 119,392 | 235,792 | 366,399 | 2.412% | 2.651% | 0.86% | D | |
| WI | 1,643,692 | 1,672,647 | 3,387,420 | 1,697,784 | 1,668,077 | 3,415,154 | 3.186% | -0.274% | 0.81% | R | |
| TX | 5,990,744 | 5,031,479 | 11,289,280 | 6,393,598 | 4,835,297 | 11,380,171 | 6.301% | -4.057% | 0.80% | R | |
| WV | 514,079 | 207,548 | 756,925 | 533,556 | 214,309 | 762,390 | 3.650% | 3.155% | 0.72% | R | |
| ND | 241,569 | 121,602 | 363,171 | 246,505 | 112,327 | 365,059 | 2.002% | -8.257% | 0.52% | R | |
| MD | 1,292,858 | 1,645,428 | 3,007,545 | 1,034,331 | 1,896,833 | 3,008,460 | -24.995% | 13.254% | 0.03% | D | |
| MT | 319,640 | 276,255 | 607,174 | 352,014 | 231,858 | 602,949 | 9.197% | -19.148% | -0.70% | R |
Doesn’t look like it — NJ is the highest, but the reporting is not as complete for the Senate race. RI just shows >95% reporting for both, so it could be a similar “wait a few weeks for the real numbers” situation.
These stats were updated 03 Dec, 2024.