Statistical analysis can make you suspicious — ‘black swan’ statistical outliers (which are still possible outcomes) and amazing coincidences where outlier possibilities are reality. Maybe it’s more fun to think about the conspiracy theory possibilities — there’s drama and intrigue. Whereas an unlikely occurrence happening because unlikely doesn’t mean impossible … that’s far less entertaining.
The Super Tuesday results are still not complete today. Where are results still pending? There are 115 delegates not yet allocated to a candidate. 13 of these are classed as “Democrats Abroad” — saying that the results for “Democrats Abroad” is outstanding because ballots are still in the post is reasonable. I’d expect a large portion of “Democrats Abroad” ballots to be posted (although there are evidently like 400 in-person polling sites too). And I don’t know how “Abroad” they’re talking about — Canada? Germany? Australia? McMurdo Station? The ISS? I’m willing to remove these delegates from the Super Tuesday list (IIRC, their in-person voting spanned a week coming up to Super Tuesday too). Of the remaining 102 delegates, one is from a state where Biden is in the lead. Not quite 1% of the outstanding delegates are in a state where Biden is in the lead. Is it possible that this outlier is an amazing coincidence? Sure. But could the DNC be creating a narrative where Biden has a decent lead in the electoral count ahead of voting this coming Tuesday with the intent of influencing voters (some 60% of whom say electability is more important than the fact the candidate agrees with them about issues)? Hard not to go there.
| State | Winner | Delegates | Unallocated Delegates | % Unallocated | Biden | Bloomberg | Gabbard | Sanders | Warren |
| Alabama | Biden | 52 | 0 | 0% | 44 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| Arkansas | Biden | 31 | 0 | 0% | 17 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | Biden | 24 | 0 | 0% | 11 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 |
| Massachusetts | Biden | 91 | 0 | 0% | 37 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 25 |
| Minnesota | Biden | 75 | 0 | 0% | 38 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 10 |
| North Carolina | Biden | 110 | 0 | 0% | 67 | 4 | 0 | 37 | 2 |
| Oklahoma | Biden | 37 | 0 | 0% | 21 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 1 |
| Tennessee | Biden | 64 | 1 | 2% | 33 | 10 | 0 | 19 | 1 |
| Texas | Biden | 228 | 0 | 0% | 111 | 10 | 0 | 102 | 5 |
| Virginia | Biden | 99 | 0 | 0% | 66 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 2 |
| American Samoa | Bloomberg | 6 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| California | Sanders | 415 | 61 | 15% | 148 | 15 | 0 | 186 | 5 |
| Colorado | Sanders | 67 | 27 | 40% | 10 | 9 | 0 | 20 | 1 |
| Utah | Sanders | 29 | 13 | 45% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| Vermont | Sanders | 16 | 0 | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |